Ukunika Amandla Ikamva: Iindlela Zokutshaja Iziseko Zophuhliso Ze-EV Zehlabathi Phakathi Kotshintsho Lwezoqoqosho

Njengoko ukwamkelwa kwezithuthi zombane kwihlabathi liphela (i-EV) kukhawulezisa—ngo-2024 intengiso idlula iiyunithi ezili-17.1 lezigidi kwaye kulindeleke ukuba zibe zizigidi ezingama-21 ngo-2025—imfuno eqinileyoIsiseko sokutshaja kwe-EVifikelele kwinqanaba elingazange libonwe ngaphambili. Nangona kunjalo, olu kukhula luqhubeka phantsi kweemeko zokuguquguquka koqoqosho, uxinzelelo lwezorhwebo, kunye nophuhliso lwetekhnoloji, nto leyo eguqula imeko yokhuphiswano lwe-ababoneleli bezikhululo zokutshaja. 1. Ukukhula kweMarike kunye noTshintsho lweSithili Imakethi yezixhobo zokutshaja ze-EV kulindeleke ukuba ikhule kwi-CAGR engama-26.8%, ifikelele kwi-$456.1 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2032, iqhutywa kukusasazwa kweetshaja zikawonke-wonke kunye nezibonelelo zikarhulumente. Iimbono eziphambili zengingqi ziquka:

• Amantla Emelika:Izitishi zokutshaja zikawonke-wonke ezingaphezu kwama-207,000 ngo-2025, ezixhaswa yi-$5 yeebhiliyoni kwinkxaso-mali karhulumente phantsi koMthetho woTyalo-mali lweZiseko zoPhuhliso kunye neMisebenzi (IIJA). Nangona kunjalo, ukunyuka kwerhafu kutshanje ngexesha likaTrump (umz., i-84% kwizixhobo ze-EV zaseTshayina) kusongela uthotho lokubonelela kunye nokuzinza kweendleko.
• IYurophu:Ukugxila kwiitshaja zikawonke-wonke ezingama-500,000 ngo-2025, kugxilwe kakhuluUkutshaja ngokukhawuleza kwe-DCecaleni kweendlela. Umthetho we-EU we-60% womxholo wasekhaya kwiiprojekthi zikawonke-wonke ucinezela ababoneleli bamanye amazwe ukuba basebenzise imveliso yabo kwiindawo zasekhaya.
• I-Asia-Pacific:Ilawulwa yiTshayina, ephethe i-50% yezikhululo zokutshaja zehlabathi. Iimarike ezisakhasayo ezifana neIndiya neThailand zamkela imigaqo-nkqubo ye-EV enamandla, apho iThailand ijonge ukuba yindawo ephambili yokuvelisa i-EV yengingqi.

2. Uphuhliso lweTekhnoloji oluqhuba iMfuno Ukutshaja ngamandla aphezulu (i-HPC) kunye nolawulo lwamandla olukrelekrele kuyayiguqula le shishini:

• Iiplatfomu ze-800V:Isebenza ngabenzi beemoto ezifana nePorsche kunye neBYD, ukutshaja okukhawulezayo kakhulu (80% kwimizuzu eli-15) kuya kusiba yinto eqhelekileyo, nto leyo ebangela ukuba kubekho iitshaja zeDC ezingama-150-350kW.
• Udibaniso lwe-V2G:Iinkqubo zokutshaja ezibhekisa kwicala elinye zivumela ii-EV ukuba zizinzise iigridi, zivumelane nezisombululo zelanga kunye nezokugcina. Umgangatho we-NACS kaTesla kunye ne-GB/T yaseTshayina zikhokela imizamo yokusebenzisana.
• Ukutshaja okungenazingcingo:Itekhnoloji entsha yokungenisa izinto iyanda ngenxa yokuba ifumana amandla kwiinqanawa zorhwebo, nto leyo enciphisa ixesha lokungasebenzi kwiindawo zothutho.

3. Imingeni yezoqoqosho kunye neempendulo ezicwangcisiweyo Imiqobo yoRhwebo kunye noxinzelelo lweendleko:

• Iimpembelelo zeRhafu:Iirhafu zase-US kwiinxalenye ze-EV zaseTshayina (ukuya kuthi ga kwi-84%) kunye nemiyalelo ye-EU yendawo zinyanzela abavelisi ukuba bahlukanise iindlela zokubonelela. Iinkampani ezifanaBeiHai AmandlaEli qela liseka iifektri zokuhlanganisa eMexico nakuMzantsi-mpuma weAsia ukuze lingayilandeli imisebenzi yalo.
• Ukunciphisa iindleko zebhetri:Amaxabiso ebhetri yeLithium-ion ehle ngama-20% ngo-2024 ukuya kwi-$115/kWh, nto leyo eyehlisa iindleko ze-EV kodwa yaqinisa ukhuphiswano lwamaxabiso phakathi kwababoneleli ngeetshaja.

Amathuba okufakelwa kombane kwezorhwebo:

• Ukuhanjiswa kweMile yokugqibela:Iiveni zombane, ekuqikelelwa ukuba ziya kulawula imakethi ye-$50 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2034, zifuna iindawo zokutshaja ngokukhawuleza zeDC ezinokwandiswa.
• Uthutho lukawonke-wonke:Izixeko ezifana ne-Oslo (ukwamkelwa kwe-88.9% ye-EV) kunye nemithetho yeendawo ezikhupha umbane ezingakhuphi mafutha (ii-ZEZ) zibangela imfuno yenethiwekhi yokutshaja ezidolophini ezinoxinano olukhulu.

4. Imigaqo yoBuchule kuBadlali boShishino Ukuze baphumelele kule meko inzima, abachaphazelekayo kufuneka babeke phambili:

• Imveliso Yasekhaya:Ukusebenzisana nabavelisi bengingqi (umz., iifektri ezinkulu zeTesla ze-EU) ukuthobela imithetho yomxholo kunye nokunciphisa iindleko zothutho.
• Ukuhambelana okuMigangatho emininzi:Ukuphuhlisa iitshaja ezixhasayoI-CCS1, i-CCS2, i-GB/T, kunye ne-NACSukukhonza iimarike zehlabathi.
• Ukuqina kweGridi:Ukudibanisa izitishi ezisebenzisa amandla elanga kunye nesoftware yokulinganisela umthwalo ukuze kuncitshiswe uxinzelelo lwegridi.

Indlela Engaphambili Nangona uxinzelelo lwezopolitiko kunye neengxaki zoqoqosho ziqhubeka, icandelo lokutshaja i-EV lihlala liyinxalenye ebalulekileyo yotshintsho lwamandla. Abahlalutyi bagxininisa iindlela ezimbini ezibalulekileyo zonyaka ka-2025-2030:

• IiMarike Ezisakhulayo:I-Afrika kunye neLatin America zinamandla angekasetyenziswa, apho ukukhula konyaka kwe-25% ekusetyenzisweni kwee-EV kufuna ixabiso elifikelelekayoIzisombululo zokutshaja ze-AC kunye nezeselula.
• Ukungaqiniseki koMgaqo-nkqubo:Unyulo lwaseMelika kunye neengxoxo zorhwebo ze-EU zinokuchaza ngokutsha imeko-bume yenkxaso-mali, zifuna ubuchule kubavelisi.

IsipheloIshishini lokutshaja ii-EV limi kwindawo edibanayo: impumelelo yetekhnoloji kunye neenjongo zokuzinza zikhuthaza ukukhula, ngelixa amaxabiso kunye nemigangatho eqhekekileyo ifuna ubuchule obutsha. Iinkampani ezamkela ukuguquguquka, ukwenziwa kwendawo, kunye neziseko ezikrelekrele ziya kukhokela eli shishini kwikamva elinombane.Ukuze ufumane izisombululo ezenzelwe wena ukuze ukwazi ukuhamba kule meko itshintshayo, [Qhagamshelana nathinamhlanje.