Ukunika amandla iKamva: IiNdlela zokuTjaja i-EV yeHlabathi yeZiseko zoPhuhliso phakathi kweeShifti kwezoQoqosho

Njengoko ukwamkelwa kwemoto yombane yehlabathi (EV) ikhawuleza-kunye nentengiso ye-2024 idlula i-17.1 yezigidi zeeyunithi kunye noqikelelo lwezigidi ezingama-21 ngo-2025-imfuno yokuqina.Izibonelelo zokutshaja ze-EVifikelele kubude obungazange bubonwe ngaphambili. Nangona kunjalo, oku kukhula kwenzeka ngokuchasene nemeko yokungazinzi kwezoqoqosho, ukungavisisani kwezorhwebo, kunye nokuveliswa kwezinto ezintsha zobuchwepheshe, kuhlengahlengiswa imeko yokhuphiswanoababoneleli besikhululo sokutshaja. 1. Ukukhula kweMarike kunye neDynamics zeNgingqi Imakethi yezixhobo zokutshaja i-EV kulindeleke ukuba ikhule nge-26.8% ye-CAGR, ifikelele kwi-456.1 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2032, iqhutywa kukusasazwa kweetshaja zoluntu kunye nenkuthazo karhulumente. Iimbono eziphambili zengingqi ziquka:

• Amantla Emelika:Ngaphezulu kwama-207,000 ezikhululo zokutshaja zoluntu ngo-2025, zixhaswa yi-5 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwinkxaso-mali yomanyano phantsi koMthetho woTyalo-mali lweZiseko zoPhuhliso kunye noMthetho weMisebenzi (IIJA). Nangona kunjalo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso exesha likaTrump (umzekelo, i-84% kumacandelo e-EV yaseTshayina) isoyikisa ikhonkco lokubonelela kunye nokuzinza kweendleko.
• IYurophu:Ukujolisa kwiitshaja zoluntu ezingama-500,000 ngo-2025, kugxilwe kwiUkutshaja ngokukhawuleza kwe-DCecaleni koohola bendlela. Umthetho we-EU wama-60% womxholo wangaphakathi kwiiprojekthi zoluntu ucinezela ababoneleli bamazwe angaphandle ukuba benze imveliso yalapha ekhaya.
• Asia-Pacific:Ilawulwa yi-China, ebambe i-50% yezikhululo zokutshaja zehlabathi. Iimarike ezikhulayo njengeIndiya kunye neThailand zamkela imigaqo-nkqubo ye-EV endlongondlongo, neThailand ijonge ukuba yindawo yokuvelisa i-EV yengingqi.

2. Ukuqhubela phambili kweTekhnoloji Ukuqhuba iMfuno UkuTjaja okuPhakamileyo (HPC) kunye nolawulo lwamandla alumkileyo luguqula ishishini:

• Amaqonga e-800V:Inikwe amandla ngabavelisi beemoto abafana ne-Porsche kunye ne-BYD, ukutshaja okukhawulezileyo (i-80% kwimizuzu eli-15) kuya kusiba yinto eqhelekileyo, kufuneka itshaja ye-DC eyi-150-350kW.
• Udibaniso lweV2G:Iinkqubo zokutshaja ze-Bidirectional zivumela ii-EV ukuba zizinzise iigridi, zihambelane nezisombululo zelanga kunye nokugcina. Umgangatho we-NACS kaTesla kunye ne-GB / T yaseTshayina zikhokela iinzame zokusebenzisana.
• Ukutshaja okungenazingcingo:Itekhnoloji ye-inductive esakhulayo ifumana ukuthambekela kwiinqanawa zorhwebo, ukunciphisa ixesha lokuphumla kwii-hubs ze-logistics.

3. Imingeni yezoQoqosho kunye neeMpendulo zeQhinga Imiqobo yoRhwebo kunye noxinzelelo lweendleko:

• Iimpembelelo zoMrhumo:Uluhlu lweerhafu zase-US kumacandelo e-EV yaseTshayina (ukuya kuthi ga kwi-84%) kunye nezigunyaziso ze-EU zasekhaya zinyanzela abavelisi ukuba bahlukanise ikhonkco lokubonelela. Iinkampani ezifanaBeiHai AmandlaIqela liseka iindawo zokudibanela eMexico nakuMzantsi-mpuma Asia ukuze lingayi emsebenzini.
• UNciphiso lweendleko zebhetri:Amaxabiso ebhetri ye-Lithium-ion awela kwi-20% kwi-2024 ukuya kwi-$ 115 / kWh, ukunciphisa iindleko ze-EV kodwa ukuqinisa ukhuphiswano lwamaxabiso phakathi kwabanikezeli beshaja.

Amathuba kuRhwebo loMbane:

• Ukuhanjiswa kweMile yokugqibela:Iiveni zombane, kuqikelelwa ukuba ziza kulawula i-50 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwimarike ngo-2034, zifuna iindawo zokugcina zokutshaja ezikhawulezayo ze-DC.
• UHambo lukawonke-wonke:Izixeko ezifana ne-Oslo (i-88.9% yokwamkelwa kwe-EV) kunye nezigunyaziso zemimandla ye-zero-emission (ZEZs) ziqhuba imfuno yothungelwano oluxineneyo lokutshaja ezidolophini.

4. ImiGaqo yoBuchule kubadlali boShishino Ukuphumelela kule meko inzima, abachaphazelekayo kufuneka babeke phambili:

• Imveliso yasekuhlaleni:Ukusebenzisana nabavelisi bengingqi (umzekelo, ii-gigafactories ze-EU zeTesla) ukuthobela imithetho yomxholo kunye nokunciphisa iindleko zokulungiselela.
• Ukuhambelana kwemiGangatho emininzi:Ukuphuhlisa iitshaja ezixhasayoI-CCS1, i-CCS2, i-GB/T, kunye ne-NACSukusebenzela iimarike zehlabathi.
• Ukomelela kwegridi:Ukudibanisa izikhululo zombane welanga kunye nesoftware yokulinganisa umthwalo ukunciphisa uxinzelelo lwegridi.

Indlela ePhambili Ngelixa i-geopolitical tension kunye ne-economic headwinds ziqhubekile, icandelo lokutshaja i-EV lihlala lisisikhokelo sotshintsho lwamandla. Abahlalutyi baqaqambisa iindlela ezimbini ezibalulekileyo zowama-2025–2030:

• Iimarike ezisakhulayo:I-Afrika kunye neLatin America zibonelela ngesakhono esingasetyenziswanga, kunye ne-25% yokukhula ngonyaka kukwamkelwa kwe-EV efuna ukufikeleleka.I-AC kunye nezisombululo zokutshaja eziphathwayo.
• Ukungaqiniseki kwePolisi:Ulonyulo lwase-US kunye nothethathethwano lwezorhwebo lwe-EU lunokuphinda luchaze ubume benkxaso-mali, lufuna ubuchule kubavelisi.

UkuqukumbelaIshishini lokutshaja i-EV limi kumdibo wendlela: impumelelo yobuchwepheshe kunye neenjongo zozinzo zikhuthaza ukukhula, ngelixa iirhafu kunye nemigangatho eyahluliweyo ifuna ukusungulwa kweqhinga. Iinkampani ezamkela ukuguquguquka, ukwenziwa kwasekhaya, kunye neziseko zophuhliso ezikrelekrele ziya kukhokelela kwintlawulo kwikamva eliqaqambileyo.Izisombululo ezilungiselelweyo ukuhamba kulo mhlaba uvelayo, [Qhagamshelana nathi] namhlanje.